Why Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in Gaza Yet Struggles With Vladimir Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict
Accounts of an upcoming US-Russia leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Just days after Donald Trump announced he intended to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial get-together by the two nations' top diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump informed the press at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a waste of time, so I will observe what happens."
- Trump states he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after plan for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Disappointment in Kyiv as President Zelensky departs Washington empty-handed
The frequently changing meeting is just the latest twist in the president's efforts to broker an end to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement in Gaza.
During a speech in Egypt last week to celebrate that truce deal, Trump turned to Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"It is essential to get the Russian situation resolved," he said.
However, the circumstances that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for the negotiation team may be difficult to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for almost several years.
Reduced Influence
Per Witkoff, the crucial element to achieving a deal was the Israeli government's move to strike Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a move that angered US partners in the Arab world but provided the president leverage to compel Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump gained from a history of supporting Israel since his initial presidency, encompassing his decision to move the US embassy to the contested city, to change America's position on the legality of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, more recently, his backing for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, in fact, is more popular among Israelis than Netanyahu – a position that gave him special sway over the nation's head.
Combine the president's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to force an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, Trump has significantly reduced leverage. In recent months, he has swung between attempts to strong-arm the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
The US leader has warned to enact additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that doing so could harm the world's financial stability and further escalate the war.
At the same time, the president has criticized openly Ukraine's president, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and suspending arms shipments to the country - only to then back off in the face of concerned European allies who caution a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the entire region.
Trump loves to tout his skill to meet and hammer out deals, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to advance the hostilities any nearer a resolution.
The Russian president may actually be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a means of manipulating him.
During the summer, Russia's leader agreed to a high-level meeting in Alaska just as it seemed probable that the president would approve on congressional sanctions package backed by Senate Republicans. That bill was subsequently delayed.
Last week, as reports spread that the US administration was seriously contemplating shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the president of Russia called Trump who then promoted the possible summit in Hungary.
The next day, the president welcomed Zelensky at the White House, but departed without agreements after a allegedly tense meeting.
Trump insisted that he was not being manipulated by Putin.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated throughout my career by the best of them, and I emerged really well," he said.
However the president of Ukraine later made note of the timeline of developments.
"Once the matter of long-range mobility became a less accessible for Ukraine – for our nation – Russia quickly became less interested in diplomacy," he said.
So, in a short period, Trump has bounced from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to planning a Budapest summit with Putin and privately urging Zelensky to cede the entire Donbas region – including land Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately settled on advocating a truce along present frontlines – a proposal Russia has rejected.
During his election campaign previously, the candidate promised that he could end the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has subsequently abandoned that commitment, saying that concluding the war is proving harder than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of establishing a framework for peace when neither side desires, or can afford to, give up the fight.