Moving from Reluctant Admiration to Unease: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Maduro.

A shock assault on the capital under cover of darkness, ending with the seizure of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the intervening power declares its plan to rule indefinitely.

That was the scenario Vladimir Putin envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned by many, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

In public, Russian officials have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of international law and a worrying development. But behind the official statements, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a coup that Russia once planned, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The operation was carried out with precision,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was supposed to unfold: swift, decisive and conclusive. It’s hard to believe [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be fighting for this long.”

These observations have fueled a atmosphere of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly war.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how brazen the US intervention seemed. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote.

A Network Unravels

For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of forging a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington.

However, even with Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other key allies lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and Maduro and Putin have long-term relations, leaving Moscow with little choice but to voice condemnation. But offering any tangible support to a country so far away is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with the US administration on that front greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” the analyst concluded.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

Those include S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Still, some in Moscow perceive a grim silver lining. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more nakedly power-based world order – one where might, rather than law, shapes outcomes.

“Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”