Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
