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Elections are now in progress for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, although analysts suggest PVV is unlikely of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a multi-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, PVV's support has declined since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in June amid a dispute concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign focused on issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party one MP. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This significant fragmentation means that no single party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of government. But, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations could take months, analysts suggest that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.